Wednesday, June 27, 2012
36 hours and counting...
Within 36 hours we will know more about ObamaCare and Contempt of Congress charges for Attorney General Holder.
Don't get excited.
ObamaCare: No matter what decision comes down from the Court, remember this fact - if you take the position that they have the authority to kill it, you take the position that they have the authority to impose it.
Beyond that premise, which you know I reject, there are political realities. Most importantly the Republicans are not going to kick Healthcare out of the Federal basket. They have no intention of surrendering power of such a huge percentage of the GDP. The Republican call is "Repeal & Replace" if SCOTUS upholds any part of ObamaCare. No matter what happens, not one politician in power or running for office is taking the Constitutionally-correct position that FedGov has ZERO role in American healthcare.
Holder: This one is going to upset a big chunk of our community, as well as the NRA crowd. (Have you noticed that even segments of the NRA crowd have taken issue with Suarez?)
There are many variables regarding the Contempt vote tomorrow. It could be cancelled or "delayed" by last minute games from either side. It could go to the Floor and be voted down. It could go to the Floor and be approved.
I'll address the potential of the vote passing. If the Attorney General is held in Contempt for not producing documents that POTUS has declared off-limits, you have a headline-making bit of political theatre that will help the D's talk about issues other than the economy. In fact, from the D perspective, you'll hear many arguments about how unreasonable this Republican House has been, thwarting POTUS at every turn, blah blah.
Simple truth: A Contempt citation does not upset the D's at all. They may be hoping for it.
Second consideration: If the Attorney General is held in Contempt, why would he and POTUS not decide this is the best time for him to take the sting and step down? Think about that for a moment. If Holder steps down, POTUS has to find, nominate, and then get through the Senate another AG - a process that will drag beyond the election cycle. And you can be certain there will be no document release until the new AG "...has a chance to get settled into office and review all GunWalker information..."
So folks, no matter what happens tomorrow regarding the Contempt vote, don't expect anything close to "Victory" for the R's. It ain't gonna happen.
Even if they do a document dump to take the vote off the table, the documents will prove generally useless.
Politically, there is no downside for the D's tomorrow regarding the Contempt vote.
Politically, Boehner is correct: There is nothing but Loser headlines for the R's, no matter what happens.
And make no mistake, folks, nothing about GunWalker is now about "Justice", it is all about Politics from both sides. Even Chairman Issa is on a political hunt. He's looking for a D takedown of any sort he can put in his resume for 2016 or 2020...
One final note: Not one American of the Leftist persuasion devotes 2 seconds a day thinking about Gunwalker. They don't care. It is the same for the average R voter and non-voter. They don't care.
GunWalker only matters Inside the Beltway and in the politically hard-Right part of the spectrum. And I can tell you first-hand: Inside the Beltway this issue is not significant. It is not an issue that keeps D's or R's awake at night. It is political noise, and nothing else.
For 99.9% of America, GunWalker is a non-issue.
Sorry for the Reality.
Posted by K at 4:04 AM